WASHINGTON (AP) — Will the coronavirus ever go away?
No one knows for sure. Scientists think the virus that causes COVID-19 may be with us for decades or longer, but that doesn’t mean it will keep posing the same threat.
The virus emerged in late 2019 and it’s difficult to predict how it will behave over the long term. But many experts believe it’s likely the disease will eventually ease from a crisis to a nuisance like the common cold.
That would happen as people build up immunity over time, either through infection or vaccination. Other viruses have followed a similar path.
The 1918 flu pandemic could also offer clues about the course of COVID-19.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that a third of the world’s population became infected with that virus, which originated in birds. Eventually, after infected people either died or developed immunity, the virus stopped spreading quickly. It later mutated into a less virulent form, which experts say continues to circulate seasonally.
However, the emergence of new COVID-19 variants could complicate the picture if future virus mutations cause more severe disease or evade vaccines.
It’s unlikely the virus will ever be completely stamped out, given the possibility that people might be able to get reinfected after they’ve already been sick or vaccinated.
The only virus that’s ever been eradicated from the human population is smallpox. That’s because people develop lasting immunity to that virus after getting sick or vaccinated.
How do we know the COVID-19 vaccines are safe?
Scientists look for safety issues during the testing phase and continue their monitoring as shots roll out around the world. So far, the only serious warning to emerge is a rare risk of severe allergic reactions.
Different types of COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized and it’s possible side effects will differ for each — although there’s more public data on the vaccines being rolled out in Western countries than elsewhere. Countries also vary in their vaccine standards, with some allowing the use of shots before final-stage testing involving large numbers of volunteers.
But in the U.S., Britain and European Union, regulators required any vaccine to be tested in tens of thousands of people before distribution. So far, the U.S. is using shots from Pfizer and Moderna, while Britain and Europe have cleared those plus the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Those companies’ large studies found that common side effects were minor and typical of the immune system revving up: soreness in the arm, fever and flu-like symptoms including fatigue, chills and headache.
But since extremely rare problems might not turn up even in large tests, the vaccines still are being monitored. The U.S. and British governments and the European Medicines Agency track reports filed by health workers and the public about suspected side effects. Extra scrutiny in the U.S. includes tracking insurance claims for red flags. And U.S. vaccine recipients can sign up for a program that sends text messages to see if they’re feeling side effects.
Those checks are proving reassuring.
People are supposed to wait around for a short time after vaccination in case they have a severe allergic reaction, called anaphylaxis. Such incidents so far have been rare, with between 2 and 5 anaphylaxis reports for every million vaccine doses in the first weeks of U.S. inoculations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Officials expected to receive reports of health problems, even deaths, that occur just by chance in the days or weeks after vaccination, given the huge numbers of people, including the frail elderly, getting inoculated.
Deaths and other serious events are investigated to see if the vaccine played a role. Authorities consider the person’s overall health and how often the reported condition occurs without vaccination. With more than 52 million vaccine doses administered in the U.S. by mid-February, the CDC said it hasn’t detected any patterns in deaths that signal a safety problem.
How are experts tracking variants of the coronavirus?
Scientists are scanning virus samples taken from infected people to look for mutations, through a process called genome sequencing. It’s the same method researchers have been using for years to study bacteria, plants, animals and humans.
Around the world, researchers have sequenced more than 500,000 genomes of the COVID-19 virus to date.
Viruses can mutate as they make copies of themselves after infecting a person. By sequencing virus samples over time, scientists can look for recurring changes in the genome.
“If we don’t know these things, we’re running blind,” said Sara Vetter, assistant lab director for the Minnesota Department of Health.
Most mutations are meaningless, but others can make a virus more contagious, deadly or resistant to vaccines and treatment. Health experts are primarily concerned about three variants first detected in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil. They seem to spread more easily and research is underway to see if they cause more serious disease.
Evidence suggests that current vaccines still work against the variants though perhaps not as well against a mutated version that first appeared in South Africa.
Countries vary in their genomic surveillance. Britain, for example, sequences about 10% of specimens positive for the coronavirus, compared to less than 1% in the U.S.
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